March 22nd,2020, we’re almost four months into a brave new COVID-19 world. Since the initial public reports of the Novel Coronavirus on December 31st of 2019, we’ve had over 300,000 confirmed cases, nearly 200,000 of which are still active.
While recoveries are still vastly outnumbering deaths – 95,000 to 13,000 at the time of this counting – the disease has already caused massive changes to how we as individuals and as a society have lived our lives.
Scientists and epidemiologists have estimated that it could take as long as eighteen months, or potentially, even more, to research, develop, and distribute a workable vaccine. Many optimists believe that, if the governmental rollout of treatment is effective and containment procedures are followed, we may see cases begin to abate during the Summer months in much the same way we do during flu season.
However, while it’s nice to hope for the best, it can often be more useful to plan for the worst-case scenario. What if the pandemic does continue as it does now for those whole eighteen months, or even beyond?
While this is a fast-developing situation and the facts of the case tend to evolve day by day, we can turn to experts and look at their current predictions for what an eighteen-month-or-beyond
pandemic might look like. Also, keep in mind: The best way to avoid the adverse effects of the Coronavirus on a personal level is to avoid catching it in the first place.
In order to do this, maintain social distancing, stay indoors, wash your hands frequently, and don’t touch your face. Before we take a look at where we might be heading with the COVID-19 pandemic, we first need to take a look at where we’ve been, and chart the course of the virus’ growth and spread over time.
As we previously mentioned, the first whisperings of the virus happened publicly in late December
of 2019. Chinese health officials traced 41 cases of mysterious pneumonia back to the Huanan Seafood Wholesale Market, where the virus is believed to have infected its first human hosts. Coronaviruses are Zoonotic diseases, meaning they originate in the animal kingdom before passing to human hosts. After drawing the connection on January 1st, the Chinese government put the kibosh on the exotic meat market, but by then it was already too late to contain the disease.
Chinese scientists first identified COVID-19 a week later and by the 11th of January, China reported their first COVID-19 death. By January 20th, 2020, COVID-19 had already been exported across the globe. Cases were reported in Thailand and the US, and by January 23rd, the Chinese government put the entire city of Wuhan under strict quarantine.
By the end of the month, the World Health Organization had declared a public health emergency, and President Trump had issued a ban on traveling to the US for those who’d been in Wuhan up to two weeks prior to traveling. The first ten days of February saw infections spike both inside and outside China, as well as the first deaths in the Philippines and the death of a United States citizen in Wuhan.
By the ninth of February, the death toll in China had surpassed that of the 2002-2003 SARS epidemic with 811 fatalities. February also gave us the virus’ name, COVID-19, as well as huge outbreaks in the US, South Korea, Iran, and Italy.
The end of February also brought the first deaths on US soil, as the devastation continued into March. Early March saw cases pop up on every continent across the globe, as well as a declaration of a global pandemic from the World Health Organization.In the wake of increasing case numbers and skyrocketing COVID-19 deaths, countries have ramped up their quarantine and safety measures
across the planet.
On March 17th, a leaked government plan revealed the possibility that the pandemic could potentially last as long as eighteen months, and come in multiple waves rather than being a single, linear progression. This brings us to the present. It’s clear that the progression has been extremely rapid, with an almost unprecedented global spread. Some government measures may slow the global rate of transmission slightly, but where can we expect to go from here?
We’ve seen a huge rush of school closures and event cancellations across the globe, as well as the closing of non-essential meeting places like bars, theatres, and dine-in restaurants. These trends are likely to continue for the foreseeable future and affect almost every aspect of our lives, from food to entertainment to healthcare.
Entertainment is moving increasingly towards streaming and video-on-demand, with major releases like Wonder Woman: 1984 skipping its theatrical run entirely and moving directly towards VOD-releasing. If we’re looking at a protracted pandemic, we’ll likely see more and more releases forego their theatrical runs and go straight to video on demand. However, this actually has wider implications for your entertainment as a whole.
Production sets for movies and television involve a lot of people working in close proximity – making them huge transmission risks. As a result, it’s unlikely new movies and TV shows would be made, so you better get used to enjoying re-runs of all your favorite shows. Thankfully, many internet content creators – like this show – are less likely to be affected due to having smaller teams.
So, there will be plenty more new videos to get you through the boredom of quarantine.
The National Debt is something that’s also likely to rise. The US Federal Reserve has already spent trillions of dollars in market fluctuation relief and the US government has also recently spent
$100 billion as part of a COVID-19 relief package. These numbers are likely to continue rising
over the eighteen-month period if the pandemic does indeed last that long.
Many areas in the US have adopted temporary policies forbidding eviction for the lack of rent due to the unprecedented levels of sudden unemployment. Other proposed legislation will likely increase pay for sick leave, and also move towards financial relief for small businesses suffering due to shut-downs.
School closures over the next eighteen months will also cause massive disruption to education systems across the globe. High school exams being canceled will lead to huge reductions in college admissions, essentially stalling the college system for over a year while new systems and technology
are developed to work around the COVID-19 pandemic.
If classes do a resume, they’ll likely be online, using services such as Zoom that’ve grown extremely popular as of late. Many commentators have observed that social distancing will likely fundamentally change our way of life for years to come, even after the 18-month pandemic concludes.
In the short term, writer Gideon Lichfield posits that the following businesses are likely to be the most damaged by protracted, mandatory social distancing: restaurants, cafes, bars, nightclubs, gyms, hotels, theaters, cinemas, art galleries, shopping malls, craft fairs, museums, musicians and other performers, sporting venues and sports teams, conference venues and conference producers, cruise lines, airlines, public transportation, private schools, and day-care centers.
Huge stresses to these businesses will likely shift the economy on a fundamental level, leading to what some economists have dubbed the “shut-in economy.” The 18-month pandemic also throws the prospect of future federal and state elections into question, considering the amount of public
gathering at polling stations that are usually required during voting.
The economic and political nature of the entire planet is likely to shift over the coming months – with consolation prizes being the sudden reduction of carbon emissions from working at home and the complete nosedive of international travel during the current crisis.
Many predict that the only conceivable way to manage future pandemics in the wake of COVID-19’s devastation will be to develop better healthcare systems, and sophisticated technology to predict, detect, and treat those at risk before outbreaks even have an opportunity to become epidemics and pandemics.
Still, in the short term, many have predicted issues with supply shortages – already precipitated
with rampant panic buying at many retail environments across the globe, as well as dangerous medical supply shortages that could leave some of the most vulnerable in real danger. Many predict that using the precedent of prior pandemics, the stress of worldwide lockdowns and supply shortages could result in widespread riots and civil unrest.
This could not only succeed in spreading the virus further but will also expend valuable government resources better spent treating cases of the virus itself. Also, it goes without saying that people’s lives would also be negatively affected by the violence itself.
The New York Times outlined a numerical worst-case-scenario for the pandemic in the US: If things go badly, 160 million to 214 million people could be infected with COVID-19 over a brief pandemic
period. This leaves the door open for 200,000 to 1.7 million deaths and between 2.4 million and 21 million hospitalizations.
This – in addition to the social distancing measures required to prevent further devastation– will likely cause economic devastation that’s hard to predict. There’s likely to be further job losses, as well as continued market instability that could affect everything from employment rates
to currency values.
Ironically, stretching the pandemic over a protracted period of time – such as eighteen months – could actually bode well for society overall. You may have heard the phrase “flattening the curve” recently, but not had it fully explained.
Essentially, it’s extremely likely that large portions of the US will be infected with COVID-19, regardless of what happens. In order to ensure the best results, social distancing spreads the infections over time, allowing the healthcare system to support a smaller number of cases over a longer period of time.
If the cases spike massively in a short period of time, while the pandemic will technically be over earlier, it will overwhelm the healthcare system and cause a much larger death toll. In other words, the longer the disease lasts, the better off everyone involved will be. In the meantime, scientists are developing fifteen different potential vaccines across the globe, using diverse technologies that
include mRNA, DNA, nanoparticle, synthetic, and modified virus-like particles to hasten
the process.
Phase 1 clinical trials are beginning in multiple countries for various potential COVID-19 vaccines
and treatments, though as stated before, many of these could take as long as eighteen months to potentially be offered to the public – especially when factoring in testing and distribution time.
While the vaccine will ultimately be a huge part of ending the pandemic, it’s an end so far off that it’s not worth banking on for the time being.
The fact is, the world is currently united in one cause: Fighting the COVID-19 virus, and preventing it from claiming and ruining lives as much as we can. Everyone on Earth has a responsibility to
reduce the spread of the disease by maintaining social distance, keeping good hygiene, and staying informed through reliable sources like the World Health Organization and the Center for Disease Control.
While frightening scenarios like an eighteen-month pandemic is becoming increasingly likely over time, all we can do is be responsible and compassionate, and work together in fighting the viral threat that unites us.
STAY HOME, STAY SAFE! LOVE YOU ALL
Covid-19 was a super time.Online class fun time
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